Raise or Raise
Your annual salary climbs on screen. It will peak at a random moment then drop. Hit LOCK IT IN at the highest point you can — but wait too long and it crashes. 5 rounds. Average salary is your score.
Negotiation Timing Assessment
Salary is rising — hit ACCEPT at the peak
5 rounds · US salaries · avg salary is your score
01 /How to Play
- Your salary starts at $80,000 and begins climbing.
- The number rises at a random rate and peaks at an unpredictable moment.
- Hit LOCK IT IN when you think you've reached the peak.
- Wait too long and the salary drops — whatever you locked in is your round score.
- Complete 5 rounds — your average locked salary is your final score.
02 /The Science
Peak detection under uncertainty is a classic problem in optimal stopping theory — the mathematical framework underlying real-world decisions from hiring to negotiation. The optimal strategy for maximizing expected value in such tasks is related to the secretary problem: observe a fixed fraction of options, then commit to the next option that exceeds all previous observations. In salary negotiation contexts, research shows that anchoring and loss aversion systematically bias humans away from optimal stopping, causing both premature commitment and excessive holding. This test measures your intuitive calibration against theoretical optima.
03 /Pro Tips
- The peak is random — there is no pattern to learn. Pure instinct.
- Statistically, locking in when the number feels 'about right' outperforms both early and late strategies.
- Loss aversion will make you hold too long — resist the urge to squeeze out the last few thousand.
- Each round is independent — a bad round does not predict the next.
- The optimal stopping rule: lock in after the salary has risen for at least 2 seconds.